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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm stance regarding Ukraine. After making threats of "significant ramifications" last August if Russia's president persisted hindering truce talks, Trump finally imposed major restrictions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously impacted Putin's capacity to support his war effort in the region.

Yet, through his latest 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, which was drafted by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European participation, he has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's proposal would effectively benefit Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although strong statements that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the plan actually compromise that very sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate past, the former president continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, like giving Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's invasion is not merely about dominating a damaged swath of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to weaken it so it no longer acts as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Concessions

Although keeping in place the presently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would compel the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk province. In addition to favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a decade of conflict, this concession would render Ukraine's defensive positions critically weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a critical obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, leaving Putin a clear way to Kyiv if he later decide to resume the conflict.

Military Reductions

Then, in a move that would facilitate renewed hostilities more feasible for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their present large number personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's plan imposes no such limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate administration as radicals, the plan asserts: "All Nazi belief system and practices must be rejected and forbidden." As if to underscore this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the initiative has Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached similar agreements in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a restoration of occupied land in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone trust Russia this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on western protection assurances. While the initiative promises a "decisive coordinated military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the specifics vary from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not just deny the nation alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from positioning troops on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the reassurance force, likely headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from replenishing his diminished military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

An additional side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "major, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. Yet unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's attacks, something they have {not